According to the report of the United Daily News in Taiwan, “Chinese Lunar Year Dragon Baby Effect” is showing its influence in Taiwan. It is estimated by the so-called “Council for Economic Planning and Development” of Taiwan that almost 210,000 babies will be born in Taiwan in 2012, which will make the average total birth rate of Taiwan from 0.9 person last year increase to 1.2 persons, a rare baby boom in recent years.
Total birth rate refers to the total number of the children given by a woman at her child-bearing age (15 – 49 years old). The total birth rate in Taiwan has dived to 0.9 person last year from 7 persons in 1951, which reached record low.
It is suggested by some Taiwan official that the “Chinese Lunar Year Dragon Baby Effect” which comes up every 12 years is expected to come back in 2012. They hope that the newly-born babies will be over 210,000 and the total birth rate will increase to 1.2 persons. It is also highlighted by this official that the “Chinese Lunar Year Dragon Baby Effect” which comes up every 12 years is very obviously to see and birth rate will decrease with an inevitable evidence in the year of Tiger, but markedly increase in the year of Dragon.
However, it is also confessed by the same official that the total number of the women at child-bearing ages between 25 to 34 years old in Taiwan has showed a decreasing trend after its peat of 1.96 million 3 years ago and such number maybe decrease by more than one million in the coming 30 years; If Taiwan authority fails to have an expected effect in its birth stimulation policies, next year will be a rare birth boom in Taiwan history and after that the total birth rate of Taiwan will be fluctuated around 1 person.
Mr. Yu Qingxiang, the Chairman of Taiwan Population Academy, said that the community environment in Taiwan is not favorable for child birth and fostering children, such as house price is too high but salary level is too low. In such society, people’s will of child birth cannot be encouraged effectively; However, the birth rate in Taiwan will not keep a lower level and maybe maintain at a level between 1 to 1.2 persons.
